\u003c/p>\u003cp>2020年,新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球,世界經濟陷入停擺。這是一場史無前例的全球危機,全球經濟正面臨著需求供給雙重沖擊,任何經濟體都難以獨善其身。值此變局關鍵時刻,鳳凰網財經聯合上海交通大學上海高級金融學院、北京大學國家發展研究院以“全球經濟與政策選擇”為主題,邀請政商學企界嘉賓通過線上形式解析全球經濟面臨的機遇與挑戰。\u003c/p>\u003cp>全球蔓延的疫情給各國經濟帶來了哪些影響?是否令社會貧困問題的解決更具挑戰性?“全球化”會不會因此走向終結?5月8日,鳳凰網財經總監張濤與美國著名經濟學家、2019年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主之一的阿比吉特·班納吉圍繞上述問題展開了一場《危機對話》。\u003c/p>\u003cp>作為一名印度裔美國經濟學家,阿比吉特·班納吉與妻子埃絲特·迪弗洛共同發表了大量學術論文;2019年,諾貝爾經濟學獎授予三位“在減少貧困人口方面做出卓越研究和貢獻”的經濟學家,班納吉和迪費洛便是其中兩位。\u003c/p>\u003cp>在與班納吉的連線中,鳳凰網財經提問道,“讓經濟學再次偉大”是班納吉傳遞給大眾的觀點之一。但不可否認的是,當今社會里很少有人能系統地從經濟史學的角度去驗證經濟學觀點的成敗得失。如果人們更具備經濟史學的眼光,對經濟學觀點的判斷和認知會不會有所提升?\u003c/p>\u003cp>對此,班納吉表示,經濟學要做的就是傳遞已知的經濟證據本質。這些證據往往不是人們天真以為的東西,而是需要思考為什么這些證據是可靠的,或是不可靠的,并且小心地解讀它。\u003c/p>\u003cp>班納吉同時強調,\u003cstrong>現代經濟學并不是一個意識形態的領域,也不是發表聲明的領域,而是一個討論邏輯的領域。\u003c/strong>“我們會深入研究一些證據,并思考它們是如何被解讀和誤讀的?!卑嗉{吉同時建議人們應該更認真地研究經濟學,不要把它作為意識形態對話的來源,而是作為科學態度和科學事實的來源。\u003c/p>\u003cp>班納吉表示,經濟學最重要的是“懷疑”原則——不要輕易被看似合理的證據說服,要對其他解釋持開放態度,本能地不相信簡單公式?!耙朗澜缡菑碗s的,我們需要獨立思考每一種可能。很多時候我們之所以會得出錯誤的結論,是因為我們沒有深究這些證據背后所有可能的理論?!盶u003c/p>","type":"text"},{"data":{"duration":560,"bigPosterUrl":"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_19/4A19B4F3C6968A453BEB631EA0DC5B549D2E8F86_w1920_h1080.jpg","keywords":"經濟學 班納吉 疫情 經濟 證據 經濟學家 全球經濟 觀點","attachmentType":"video","guid":"72ce34ec-9d8f-4bd1-af0c-98fcb940efab","attachmentId":"72ce34ec-9d8f-4bd1-af0c-98fcb940efab","mobileUrl":"http://ips.ifeng.com/video19.ifeng.com/video09/2020/05/08/p35615533-102-009-115825.mp4","title":"鳳凰對話新科諾獎得主:全球如此依賴中國 無論如何我也不相信全球化會終結","playUrl":"http://ips.ifeng.com/video19.ifeng.com/video09/2020/05/08/p35615533-102-009-115825.mp4"},"type":"video"},{"data":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>以下為鳳凰網財經與班納吉對話實錄:\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: You published Poor Economics ten years ago and listed many causes of poverty. In my understanding, many people were born to be poor. Currently, due to the global outbreak of Coronavirus, some people fall into poverty. Do you have any solution for this new kind of poverty?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤: \u003c/strong>您十年前的著作《貧窮的本質》,提到了很多貧窮的成因,但我理解書里講的很多人是天生貧窮?,F在的一個問題是,因為新冠肺炎疫情的影響經濟出現衰退,造成了很多人開始陷入貧困;針對日益加劇的貧困現象,您有什么好的解決辦法?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: In terms of what this Coronavirus pandemic might do to long-term poverty, I think it’s too soon to close the book. I think we have seen episodes where there is a large shock. But the economies recover fast. Most of the people who are poor who are basically less poor now because they are earning money now. We’ll also start earning money and again recover the economic status. I think most poor people will have lost some of their saving. But they don’t have so much saving. That’s not the source of long-term poverty for them.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>我并不認為新冠肺炎疫情可能會造成長期貧困,現在下結論還為時過早。事實上大多數窮人已然通過工作賺錢而擺脫了貧窮,現在也一樣。誠然,疫情對全球經濟造成了巨大沖擊,經濟開始出現復蘇,并將快速恢復,人們也將再次開始賺錢擺脫貧窮。有些人會因為失去部分積蓄而變成窮人,但他們本就沒有那么多的存款;這次新冠肺炎疫情并不是他們長期貧困的根源。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you mentioned that the society is divided and antagonized, with a shrinking space for the dialogue and an increasing level of polarization. Amid pandemic, we notice that this phenomenon has become more visible and serious. What is the root of this social disruption and polarization?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>在《好的經濟學》一書里,有一個觀點:社會嚴重撕裂和對立,對話的空間在縮小,兩極分化嚴重;在新冠肺炎疫情的影響下,這種“撕裂”現象越發嚴重,造成這種災難現象的根本原因是什么?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: I think the polarization is always an option. For politicians who are to stay out of a place for themselves, they will use this opportunity to blame somebody. To claim that you know either nationalistic gestures, or you know claims of superiority and inferiority and who’s responsible. We absolutely see it right now. But it’s one of the things that, I think, when people are frightened, it’s always something that people will sort of in the corner of mind comes up. Say you know “is this someone who’s responsible?” Is this someone who should be blamed? I think that’s easy to have that. I think what we need is confidence building in not losing our confidence that we can do it and we shouldn’t shrink down into a group of who worrying about consequences. We should hold our peace when people see provocative things, ignore them. I think that’s a big confidence in the role of the state and in the role of the international community, in what we can do together. That’s the best recipe.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>我認為兩極分化是一直存在的。對于那些想把自己置身事外的政客來說,他們會利用現在這個機會來指責他人;或是為民粹主義吶喊,或是討論優越和低劣,或者指責某些國家來負責。當人們感到恐慌時,大腦的某一角落總會冒出一些想法,比如,“這個人該對此負責嗎?”“我們該指責這個人嗎?”人們很容易這樣想。我認為,我們需要建立信心,堅信我們不會失去,堅信我們可以做到。我們不應該退縮,變成擔心后果的一群人。當我們看到挑釁性的事情時,應該保持平靜。我認為這是對國家、國際社會,對我們共同努力的堅信。這,才是最好的解決辦法。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you would like to make economics great again. My personal feeling is that people like to accept some economists’ viewpoints, but fail to understand economics from a historical perspective. If we put economists’ opinions in the long run of history, can we understand them better?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>《好的經濟學》里有一個觀點,讓經濟學再次偉大。我的一個感受,很多對于經濟學家的誤解和批判,其實是因為人們往往容易接受某一種經濟學觀點,但很少有人系統地從經濟史學的角度去驗證經濟學觀點的成敗得失。從歷史的角度來看,我們是不是能更好理解經濟學家觀點的局限和成功之處?如果人們更具備經濟史學的眼光,他們的判斷和認知會不好好一點?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: I’m not sure I particularly understand the view that you know this is somehow we have to understand the economics in a historical perspective. I do think is that what economics has fair to do is just convey the knowns nature of economic evidence. The evidence is often not, you cannot read naively. That you need to kind of think about why that evidence may or may not reliable. And interpret it with some care. I think that if we do that, I’m confident that we can make progress. The whole point of our book was of good economics for hard times, was to give us a sense of how modern economics reasons. And modern economics is not an ideological domain where they are just domain of the pronouncements. It’s a domain of discuss logic where we kind of go into piece of evidence and think of how they could be interpreted and misinterpreted. If they do that carefully, and what we try to do in the book in particular to get everybody else, the reader in particular, to understand how to participate in that process, to themselves inquiry of evidence and not take it for granted. Be open to different interpretations. Try to see how to put together a bunch piece of evidence, chain them together to make a stronger case. That’s sort of the project of our book and hopefully that will make people appreciate why they should dig economics more seriously, not as a source of ideological talks, but as a source of scientific attitudes and scientific facts.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>我認為經濟學要做的就是傳遞已知的經濟證據本質。這些證據往往不是人們天真以為的東西,你需要思考為什么這些證據是可靠的,或是不可靠的,并且小心地解讀它。如果我們堅持這樣做,我相信一定會進步。我們這本書的重點是艱難時期的好經濟,是讓我們了解現代經濟學是如何推理的?,F代經濟學并不是一個意識形態的領域,也不是發表聲明的領域,而是一個討論邏輯的領域。我們會深入研究一些證據,并思考它們是如何被解讀和誤讀的。\u003c/p>\u003cp>其實我們在書中也試圖讓讀者去理解如何參與到這個過程中,讓他們自己去探尋證據而不是想當然,讓他們對不同的解讀持開放態度,并試著看如何把各種證據整合到一起,形成一個更有力的論據。這也是我們寫這本書的一個目的,希望這能讓人們明白為什么他們應該更認真地研究經濟學,不要把它作為意識形態對話的來源,而是作為科學態度和科學事實的來源。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: In Good Economics, you list some principles and try to convey them to your reader. If you can pick only one rule for your reader, which one would you choose?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>《好的經濟學》想向公眾傳達的幾個觀點,如果做個排序,會怎么排?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: Among the principles we listed in Good Economics, I think perhaps the most important principle is the principle of skepticism. I think of being, not being convinced by evidence that looks plausible. Or the principle of being open to alternative interpretation. So try to inquire the data that they look or may look this way but it doesn’t have to be. Often times the reason why we end up in the wrong place is because we don’t interpret the evidence. Now if we don’t think what alternative reason enough, we kind of act naively. So I think perhaps the principle of skepticism of being open to different interpretations being inherently willing to mistrust easy formula. You know the world is a complex place. We need to think of each situation on its own. I think that’s the best recipe we have.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>在這本書所列出的原則,我認為最重要的是“懷疑”原則——不要輕易被看似合理的證據說服,要對其他解釋持開放態度。我們要試著去深究那些可能看起來是這樣、但不一定只能是這樣的數據。很多時候我們之所以會得出錯誤的結論,是因為我們沒有深究這些證據背后所有可能的理論。我想傳達的“懷疑”原則是,對不同解釋持開放態度,本能地不相信簡單公式。要知道世界是復雜的,我們需要獨立思考每一種可能。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: In the context of the pandemic outbreak and economic recession, what’s your solution for today’s economy? Can we turn the economy better in this disastrous situation?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>在全球經濟大衰退的背景下,如何讓經濟繼續向好?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: In term of the pandemic, I think that what we can, I think, presumably and frankly say is that this is going to be an immediate demand shock, that lots of people would have lost their earning capacity and therefore in the short trend is the spending capacity. If we don’t restore the spending capacity, then the economy will shrink. And so I think the most important simple economic lesson we have is that government should be in a position to bump the economy, so that the supply forces must be in demand.\u003c/p>\u003cp>And the natural economic forces which stick supply into demand, and demand into further incomes, and then into further demand again. I think that chain will reopen. That’s critical that we do that.\u003c/p>\u003cp>班納吉:我想可以直截了當地說,疫情導致了需求銳減。許多人會喪失收入能力,從而短期內失去消費能力。而如果消費能力得不到恢復,將會出現經濟萎縮。最重要也最簡單的經濟理論(供給需求理論)告訴我們,政府應該采取經濟刺激手段,以使得供給與需求相互匹配。自然的市場經濟運行中,有效供給會創造相應的需求,需求體現收入和購買力,并進一步擴大需求。我認為這個鏈條將會重新啟動,能否做到這一點對經濟向好至關重要。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: The Economist recently published a cover story—The Globalization is over. Do you share the same view? What’s your perspective on globalization?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>全球化遭遇到重大挑戰,《經濟學人》近期的封面文章是,全球化終結。全球化終結了嗎?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: Actually, I’m not particularly pessimistic yet about globalization. I think the degree of globalization might vary a little. But I think that the degree its supply depends on China for example is just so enormous that whatever I don’t believe that it’s going to be an end. I just think that’s going to be, you know maybe their exchange will move a little bit. But I don’t, finally I don’t believe that the globalization is going to be over. I think maybe a particular level of enthusiasm for globalization will be questioned, and maybe it should be questioned a little bit, because I think there is maybe a naïve commitment to it in some circles. But I think overall I don’t believe it’s going to be the end of globalization.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>實際上我對全球化并不十分悲觀,但我認為全球化的程度可能會有所變化。目前全球供給鏈對一些國家,比如中國,的依賴程度如此之大,以至于無論如何我都不相信全球化會很快終結。我只是認為,也許匯率會為了適應這一點而有所變動。人們可能會對之前全球化過熱的現象提出質疑和反思,這種質疑是必須的,因為我覺得之前在一些貿易圈內的承諾過于幼稚。但總體而言,我不認為這會是全球化的終結。\u003c/p>\u003cp>IFENG: A Chinese philosopher asked a question at the end of his life—will this world be a better place? What’s your answer to this question?\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>張濤:\u003c/strong>中國有一位哲學家在臨終時問了一個問題,這個世界會好嗎?您的答案是什么?\u003c/p>\u003cp>Banerjee: At the end of my life, I actually believe the world will be a better place. I still think that just in my lifetime, I have seen enormous improvements, enormous problems as well. I think the climate problem is potentially catastrophe. We need to do something about it. But I have hope that we will and especially this pandemic might persuade us that you know trifle with nature powers is dangerous. And I think that on the other hand, we have achieved a lot. A lot of people who used to be desperately poor are less desperately poor now. Enormous reduction in world poverty, and not just in China, in lots of places in Bangladesh, in Vietnam, in Pakistan, in India, in Cambodia. So I think in all of those things will contribute to, have contributed to a better world. And I feel that the same forces will do more good things for the world.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>班納吉:\u003c/strong>到我生命將結束時,我會認為,世界變得更好了。在我的一生中,我看到了世界的巨大進步,當然也看到了巨大的問題——我認為氣候變化是一個潛在的災難,我希望人們能意識到并為此采取行動。這次疫情讓我們知道,輕視自然的力量是危險的。但是另一方面,在全球范圍內貧困問題得到極大的解決,處于極度貧困的人口銳減,包括中國、孟加拉、越南、巴基斯坦、印度、柬埔寨等(都在治理貧窮問題上取得了重要進步)。這些事情有助于建立一個更好的世界。同樣的力量也將為世界帶來更多好的變化。\u003c/p>\u003cp>編者注:阿比吉特·班納吉(Abhijit Banerjee)是美國著名經濟學家、美國麻省理工學院福特基金會國際經濟學教授,同時也是Abdul Latif Jameel貧困行動實驗室的聯合創始人,該實驗室是貧困行動創新研究的附屬機構,也是金融系統和貧困聯合會的成員。2019年10月14日,2019年諾貝爾經濟學獎在瑞典揭曉,由阿比吉特·班納吉等三人摘得獎項,以表彰他們“在減輕全球貧困方面的實驗性做法”。\u003c/p>\u003cp>專題:\u003ca href=\"https://news.ifeng.com/c/s/7w0ah6ls8J6?aman=5fP180M116g629Gf80kaacU0b4h37eL328U112M099&gud=68f273F009\">中國經濟如何快速復蘇?清北上交的教授這樣支招\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cimg src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/ucms/2020_19/14CEA7F9A8E2BE2D343C250134E6E62AF5DF515A_w762_h762.png\" 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鳳凰獨家 | 諾獎得主:現代經濟學不是一個意識形態的領域
財經

鳳凰獨家 | 諾獎得主:現代經濟學不是一個意識形態的領域

2020年05月08日 12:07:06
來源:鳳凰網財經

2020年,新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球,世界經濟陷入停擺。這是一場史無前例的全球危機,全球經濟正面臨著需求供給雙重沖擊,任何經濟體都難以獨善其身。值此變局關鍵時刻,鳳凰網財經聯合上海交通大學上海高級金融學院、北京大學國家發展研究院以“全球經濟與政策選擇”為主題,邀請政商學企界嘉賓通過線上形式解析全球經濟面臨的機遇與挑戰。

全球蔓延的疫情給各國經濟帶來了哪些影響?是否令社會貧困問題的解決更具挑戰性?“全球化”會不會因此走向終結?5月8日,鳳凰網財經總監張濤與美國著名經濟學家、2019年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主之一的阿比吉特·班納吉圍繞上述問題展開了一場《危機對話》。

作為一名印度裔美國經濟學家,阿比吉特·班納吉與妻子埃絲特·迪弗洛共同發表了大量學術論文;2019年,諾貝爾經濟學獎授予三位“在減少貧困人口方面做出卓越研究和貢獻”的經濟學家,班納吉和迪費洛便是其中兩位。

在與班納吉的連線中,鳳凰網財經提問道,“讓經濟學再次偉大”是班納吉傳遞給大眾的觀點之一。但不可否認的是,當今社會里很少有人能系統地從經濟史學的角度去驗證經濟學觀點的成敗得失。如果人們更具備經濟史學的眼光,對經濟學觀點的判斷和認知會不會有所提升?

對此,班納吉表示,經濟學要做的就是傳遞已知的經濟證據本質。這些證據往往不是人們天真以為的東西,而是需要思考為什么這些證據是可靠的,或是不可靠的,并且小心地解讀它。

班納吉同時強調,現代經濟學并不是一個意識形態的領域,也不是發表聲明的領域,而是一個討論邏輯的領域。“我們會深入研究一些證據,并思考它們是如何被解讀和誤讀的?!卑嗉{吉同時建議人們應該更認真地研究經濟學,不要把它作為意識形態對話的來源,而是作為科學態度和科學事實的來源。

班納吉表示,經濟學最重要的是“懷疑”原則——不要輕易被看似合理的證據說服,要對其他解釋持開放態度,本能地不相信簡單公式?!耙朗澜缡菑碗s的,我們需要獨立思考每一種可能。很多時候我們之所以會得出錯誤的結論,是因為我們沒有深究這些證據背后所有可能的理論?!?/p>

自動播放

以下為鳳凰網財經與班納吉對話實錄:

IFENG: You published Poor Economics ten years ago and listed many causes of poverty. In my understanding, many people were born to be poor. Currently, due to the global outbreak of Coronavirus, some people fall into poverty. Do you have any solution for this new kind of poverty?

張濤: 您十年前的著作《貧窮的本質》,提到了很多貧窮的成因,但我理解書里講的很多人是天生貧窮?,F在的一個問題是,因為新冠肺炎疫情的影響經濟出現衰退,造成了很多人開始陷入貧困;針對日益加劇的貧困現象,您有什么好的解決辦法?

Banerjee: In terms of what this Coronavirus pandemic might do to long-term poverty, I think it’s too soon to close the book. I think we have seen episodes where there is a large shock. But the economies recover fast. Most of the people who are poor who are basically less poor now because they are earning money now. We’ll also start earning money and again recover the economic status. I think most poor people will have lost some of their saving. But they don’t have so much saving. That’s not the source of long-term poverty for them.

班納吉:我并不認為新冠肺炎疫情可能會造成長期貧困,現在下結論還為時過早。事實上大多數窮人已然通過工作賺錢而擺脫了貧窮,現在也一樣。誠然,疫情對全球經濟造成了巨大沖擊,經濟開始出現復蘇,并將快速恢復,人們也將再次開始賺錢擺脫貧窮。有些人會因為失去部分積蓄而變成窮人,但他們本就沒有那么多的存款;這次新冠肺炎疫情并不是他們長期貧困的根源。

IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you mentioned that the society is divided and antagonized, with a shrinking space for the dialogue and an increasing level of polarization. Amid pandemic, we notice that this phenomenon has become more visible and serious. What is the root of this social disruption and polarization?

張濤:在《好的經濟學》一書里,有一個觀點:社會嚴重撕裂和對立,對話的空間在縮小,兩極分化嚴重;在新冠肺炎疫情的影響下,這種“撕裂”現象越發嚴重,造成這種災難現象的根本原因是什么?

Banerjee: I think the polarization is always an option. For politicians who are to stay out of a place for themselves, they will use this opportunity to blame somebody. To claim that you know either nationalistic gestures, or you know claims of superiority and inferiority and who’s responsible. We absolutely see it right now. But it’s one of the things that, I think, when people are frightened, it’s always something that people will sort of in the corner of mind comes up. Say you know “is this someone who’s responsible?” Is this someone who should be blamed? I think that’s easy to have that. I think what we need is confidence building in not losing our confidence that we can do it and we shouldn’t shrink down into a group of who worrying about consequences. We should hold our peace when people see provocative things, ignore them. I think that’s a big confidence in the role of the state and in the role of the international community, in what we can do together. That’s the best recipe.

班納吉:我認為兩極分化是一直存在的。對于那些想把自己置身事外的政客來說,他們會利用現在這個機會來指責他人;或是為民粹主義吶喊,或是討論優越和低劣,或者指責某些國家來負責。當人們感到恐慌時,大腦的某一角落總會冒出一些想法,比如,“這個人該對此負責嗎?”“我們該指責這個人嗎?”人們很容易這樣想。我認為,我們需要建立信心,堅信我們不會失去,堅信我們可以做到。我們不應該退縮,變成擔心后果的一群人。當我們看到挑釁性的事情時,應該保持平靜。我認為這是對國家、國際社會,對我們共同努力的堅信。這,才是最好的解決辦法。

IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you would like to make economics great again. My personal feeling is that people like to accept some economists’ viewpoints, but fail to understand economics from a historical perspective. If we put economists’ opinions in the long run of history, can we understand them better?

張濤:《好的經濟學》里有一個觀點,讓經濟學再次偉大。我的一個感受,很多對于經濟學家的誤解和批判,其實是因為人們往往容易接受某一種經濟學觀點,但很少有人系統地從經濟史學的角度去驗證經濟學觀點的成敗得失。從歷史的角度來看,我們是不是能更好理解經濟學家觀點的局限和成功之處?如果人們更具備經濟史學的眼光,他們的判斷和認知會不好好一點?

Banerjee: I’m not sure I particularly understand the view that you know this is somehow we have to understand the economics in a historical perspective. I do think is that what economics has fair to do is just convey the knowns nature of economic evidence. The evidence is often not, you cannot read naively. That you need to kind of think about why that evidence may or may not reliable. And interpret it with some care. I think that if we do that, I’m confident that we can make progress. The whole point of our book was of good economics for hard times, was to give us a sense of how modern economics reasons. And modern economics is not an ideological domain where they are just domain of the pronouncements. It’s a domain of discuss logic where we kind of go into piece of evidence and think of how they could be interpreted and misinterpreted. If they do that carefully, and what we try to do in the book in particular to get everybody else, the reader in particular, to understand how to participate in that process, to themselves inquiry of evidence and not take it for granted. Be open to different interpretations. Try to see how to put together a bunch piece of evidence, chain them together to make a stronger case. That’s sort of the project of our book and hopefully that will make people appreciate why they should dig economics more seriously, not as a source of ideological talks, but as a source of scientific attitudes and scientific facts.

班納吉:我認為經濟學要做的就是傳遞已知的經濟證據本質。這些證據往往不是人們天真以為的東西,你需要思考為什么這些證據是可靠的,或是不可靠的,并且小心地解讀它。如果我們堅持這樣做,我相信一定會進步。我們這本書的重點是艱難時期的好經濟,是讓我們了解現代經濟學是如何推理的?,F代經濟學并不是一個意識形態的領域,也不是發表聲明的領域,而是一個討論邏輯的領域。我們會深入研究一些證據,并思考它們是如何被解讀和誤讀的。

其實我們在書中也試圖讓讀者去理解如何參與到這個過程中,讓他們自己去探尋證據而不是想當然,讓他們對不同的解讀持開放態度,并試著看如何把各種證據整合到一起,形成一個更有力的論據。這也是我們寫這本書的一個目的,希望這能讓人們明白為什么他們應該更認真地研究經濟學,不要把它作為意識形態對話的來源,而是作為科學態度和科學事實的來源。

IFENG: In Good Economics, you list some principles and try to convey them to your reader. If you can pick only one rule for your reader, which one would you choose?

張濤:《好的經濟學》想向公眾傳達的幾個觀點,如果做個排序,會怎么排?

Banerjee: Among the principles we listed in Good Economics, I think perhaps the most important principle is the principle of skepticism. I think of being, not being convinced by evidence that looks plausible. Or the principle of being open to alternative interpretation. So try to inquire the data that they look or may look this way but it doesn’t have to be. Often times the reason why we end up in the wrong place is because we don’t interpret the evidence. Now if we don’t think what alternative reason enough, we kind of act naively. So I think perhaps the principle of skepticism of being open to different interpretations being inherently willing to mistrust easy formula. You know the world is a complex place. We need to think of each situation on its own. I think that’s the best recipe we have.

班納吉:在這本書所列出的原則,我認為最重要的是“懷疑”原則——不要輕易被看似合理的證據說服,要對其他解釋持開放態度。我們要試著去深究那些可能看起來是這樣、但不一定只能是這樣的數據。很多時候我們之所以會得出錯誤的結論,是因為我們沒有深究這些證據背后所有可能的理論。我想傳達的“懷疑”原則是,對不同解釋持開放態度,本能地不相信簡單公式。要知道世界是復雜的,我們需要獨立思考每一種可能。

IFENG: In the context of the pandemic outbreak and economic recession, what’s your solution for today’s economy? Can we turn the economy better in this disastrous situation?

張濤:在全球經濟大衰退的背景下,如何讓經濟繼續向好?

Banerjee: In term of the pandemic, I think that what we can, I think, presumably and frankly say is that this is going to be an immediate demand shock, that lots of people would have lost their earning capacity and therefore in the short trend is the spending capacity. If we don’t restore the spending capacity, then the economy will shrink. And so I think the most important simple economic lesson we have is that government should be in a position to bump the economy, so that the supply forces must be in demand.

And the natural economic forces which stick supply into demand, and demand into further incomes, and then into further demand again. I think that chain will reopen. That’s critical that we do that.

班納吉:我想可以直截了當地說,疫情導致了需求銳減。許多人會喪失收入能力,從而短期內失去消費能力。而如果消費能力得不到恢復,將會出現經濟萎縮。最重要也最簡單的經濟理論(供給需求理論)告訴我們,政府應該采取經濟刺激手段,以使得供給與需求相互匹配。自然的市場經濟運行中,有效供給會創造相應的需求,需求體現收入和購買力,并進一步擴大需求。我認為這個鏈條將會重新啟動,能否做到這一點對經濟向好至關重要。

IFENG: The Economist recently published a cover story—The Globalization is over. Do you share the same view? What’s your perspective on globalization?

張濤:全球化遭遇到重大挑戰,《經濟學人》近期的封面文章是,全球化終結。全球化終結了嗎?

Banerjee: Actually, I’m not particularly pessimistic yet about globalization. I think the degree of globalization might vary a little. But I think that the degree its supply depends on China for example is just so enormous that whatever I don’t believe that it’s going to be an end. I just think that’s going to be, you know maybe their exchange will move a little bit. But I don’t, finally I don’t believe that the globalization is going to be over. I think maybe a particular level of enthusiasm for globalization will be questioned, and maybe it should be questioned a little bit, because I think there is maybe a naïve commitment to it in some circles. But I think overall I don’t believe it’s going to be the end of globalization.

班納吉:實際上我對全球化并不十分悲觀,但我認為全球化的程度可能會有所變化。目前全球供給鏈對一些國家,比如中國,的依賴程度如此之大,以至于無論如何我都不相信全球化會很快終結。我只是認為,也許匯率會為了適應這一點而有所變動。人們可能會對之前全球化過熱的現象提出質疑和反思,這種質疑是必須的,因為我覺得之前在一些貿易圈內的承諾過于幼稚。但總體而言,我不認為這會是全球化的終結。

IFENG: A Chinese philosopher asked a question at the end of his life—will this world be a better place? What’s your answer to this question?

張濤:中國有一位哲學家在臨終時問了一個問題,這個世界會好嗎?您的答案是什么?

Banerjee: At the end of my life, I actually believe the world will be a better place. I still think that just in my lifetime, I have seen enormous improvements, enormous problems as well. I think the climate problem is potentially catastrophe. We need to do something about it. But I have hope that we will and especially this pandemic might persuade us that you know trifle with nature powers is dangerous. And I think that on the other hand, we have achieved a lot. A lot of people who used to be desperately poor are less desperately poor now. Enormous reduction in world poverty, and not just in China, in lots of places in Bangladesh, in Vietnam, in Pakistan, in India, in Cambodia. So I think in all of those things will contribute to, have contributed to a better world. And I feel that the same forces will do more good things for the world.

班納吉:到我生命將結束時,我會認為,世界變得更好了。在我的一生中,我看到了世界的巨大進步,當然也看到了巨大的問題——我認為氣候變化是一個潛在的災難,我希望人們能意識到并為此采取行動。這次疫情讓我們知道,輕視自然的力量是危險的。但是另一方面,在全球范圍內貧困問題得到極大的解決,處于極度貧困的人口銳減,包括中國、孟加拉、越南、巴基斯坦、印度、柬埔寨等(都在治理貧窮問題上取得了重要進步)。這些事情有助于建立一個更好的世界。同樣的力量也將為世界帶來更多好的變化。

編者注:阿比吉特·班納吉(Abhijit Banerjee)是美國著名經濟學家、美國麻省理工學院福特基金會國際經濟學教授,同時也是Abdul Latif Jameel貧困行動實驗室的聯合創始人,該實驗室是貧困行動創新研究的附屬機構,也是金融系統和貧困聯合會的成員。2019年10月14日,2019年諾貝爾經濟學獎在瑞典揭曉,由阿比吉特·班納吉等三人摘得獎項,以表彰他們“在減輕全球貧困方面的實驗性做法”。

專題:中國經濟如何快速復蘇?清北上交的教授這樣支招

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